The predictions, not that they're worth much.
-Swim: Provided that it will be a wetsuit swim and I get a good wave, I should be 19 and change. Who knows, though, I could have a junky wave and get kicked in the schnoz, but you know, 19 and change sounds nice. I've done a mile for time, a broken mile for time, and progressive interval sets of 100s and 50s totaling a mile's worth of work and each time I've been 20:00 or under with 19:05 being my best. 20mins was for the straight mile. My calculations are never correct on what a wetsuit is worth, but I'd say it gives me a robust chance at sub-20. Water is low 70's now - should be great!
-Bike: In the 2-week drill leading up to the race I've almost replicated exactly what I did leading up to Tampa when my bike split was just over an hour. It was by far the best I've felt all year on the bike, and though the course profile isn't at all what St. Anthony's was, I still think with the big downhill towards the end of the bike that I have as good a chance as any at breaking 1:00. For the first time I'll have some business wheels on. A disc in the back and 808 firecrest on the front. Every little bit helps! I must include that as of now I feel really fresh on two wheels. The last time trial I did was a 20sec PR for 10mi, and hill work in the aero position has made me stronger for any positive gradient I might happen upon. I put in a lot of hard intervals this winter and summer thanks to some conversational guidance from the guys at the bike shop, so with the right rest I should be hammer time.
-Run: The dice have yet to be rolled in this department. I think I'm capable of running 6:20s, which would give me 39:15, but more realistically, on the course provided, I'll probably slide in just at 40mins. I haven't put a lot of concerted effort into the run this year, reason being my surgery last year and trying to play it cool for the entire season with no injuries. Success so far! What is more, I did have a PR 5k earlier in the spring at the YMCA run. All in all, the run will determine how close to 2:05 I get. That's the goal. All things considered, I would be thrilled!
Then it's off to Canada for three days and then back to work. The travel is the best part. I have learned the most in my life from going places, seeing things, talking with people. Sitting in the car for hours on end has allowed me to discover myself, and I think to comfortably travel long distances with just yourself, you've got to be open to the possibility of learning things about yourself you hadn't planned on knowing. It's the pause button. My mind needs it. It needs to do tons of shit for umpteen weeks, then rest and think about what happened and what I learned and where to go next. In the past, those times let me figure out that I really don't like racing. Not even at all. If you compare it to maps, new roads, new people, and great experiences, it only lets you find out one thing - if you can take the pain, or not.
